With Apple's fourth calendar quarter earnings for 2008 (first fiscal quarter for 2009) coming out next Wednesday, analysts are offering their predictions on the revenue and unit sales numbers that will be announced. UBS analyst Maynard Um believes, in a note covered by AppleInsider, that iPhone sales for the fourth quarter will be down a good bit from the third quarter, but also reveals that supply chain checks suggest that Apple is building an iPhone with 4GB of memory.
Other analysts have already said that ciPhone unit sales could be below 4 million this time around, so Um isn't the first to postulate this. Um also sees revenues falling within Apple's guidance, and a gross margin slightly higher than the company's estimates. The alleged 4GB iPhone is the biggest news from the report, although Um is quick to note that production plans often change. Apple has supposedly ordered 7 million iPhones in each of the first two quarters of 2009, which is a pretty solid order.
If Apple were to release a 4GB iPhone, Um predicts that it would cannibalize sales of both the iPhone and iPod touch, and would obviously reduce the average selling price of the hiPhone. But if Apple maintains a 40 percent profit margin on the device, the company would only have to sell 1.5 million 4GB iPhones to offset the cannibalization.
